Arkham Intelligence: Grayscale will exhaust Bitcoin reserves in 96 days

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has faced a constant outflow of funds, which raises concerns about the trajectory of its further development.

Arkham Intelligence: Grayscale will exhaust Bitcoin reserves in 96 days

The analytical company Arkham Intelligence predicts that GBTC may exhaust its bitcoin reserves within the next 96 days if the current pace of repurchase continues.

Since converting to a spot bitcoin ETF in January, Grayscale's reserve has decreased by 266,470 coins. This is a significant decrease compared to the initial balance of about 620 thousand BTC.

The downward trend is explained by the constant outflow of funds from GBTC, averaging 25,900 bitcoins per week.

"At the beginning of the year, Grayscale held 618,280 BTC for its GBTC bitcoin trust. They currently have only 356,440 BTC. If they continue in the same spirit, then only 14 weeks will remain before the final exhaustion," Arkham analysts note.

Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshain explains the constant outflow of funds by profit-taking by investors and arbitrageurs. However, some market observers believe that the reason is the high commission, which is 1.5%. At the same time, Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, noted that the outflow of funds last week mainly fell on the defunct Genesis cryptocurrency lender.

Grayscale is considering various initiatives to counter the sad trend. Among them is the creation of a mini—fund, which will become an economically profitable alternative to GBTC. Sonnenschein also mentioned the company's plans to reduce the commission.

"We have seen this in many other markets. When products are in the early stages of their life cycle, when they first appear, the commissions are usually higher. As these markets develop and funds grow, they tend to decline, and we expect the same to happen with GBTC," he said.


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